Assoenologi, ISMEA and UIV harvest forecasts presented

Wine, Harvest: Vineyard Italy stronger than heat and drought. Grape quality surprising, quantity exceeds average of last 5 years (+3%). Cyclical unknowns weigh on market, exports good but values inflated by inflation.

A satisfactory vintage in quantity and surprising in quality. According to the grape harvest forecasts of the Assoenologi Observatory, Ismea and the Italian Wine Union, presented today at Mipaaf, this year's drought and record heat have not compromised the Italian vineyard, which, at the start of the harvest campaign, promises grapes of good to excellent quality, with quantity in line with the average of recent vintages. Ensuring the resilience of the final product, in addition to the providential August rains, is the extraordinary research and application work of producers on a vine that is increasingly resilient to climatic and meteorological adversity. According to the data presented today in the presence of, among others, the minister and the undersecretary for Agricultural Policies, Stefano Patuanelli and Gian Marco Centinaio, 2022 production should in fact be around 50.27 million hectoliters of wine, the same amount as last year (50.23 million hectoliters of wine the Agea 2021 figure) and at +3% compared to the average of the five-year period 2017-2021, although the weather trend in the coming weeks remains crucial. Favorable weather conditions for grape ripening could in fact turn the forecast in a positive sign, while unsuitable weather for late varieties would negatively affect the harvest product.

According to Fabio Del Bravo, head of Ismea's Rural Development Services Directorate: "In terms of markets, Italy closed the 21/22 campaign with price increases especially in wines at the top of the quality pyramid. The first bars of the new campaign outline a still uncertain scenario where the many unknowns, also linked to tensions on costs and logistics, which already created concerns for operators last year but are now even more pressing, weigh heavily. The good estimated production results, in spite of summer fears about drought, mean that there will be availability of quality product in this campaign as well, and while on the foreign front demand seems to be holding up albeit not with the brilliant results of 2021, on the domestic front there are some signs of subsidence in purchases from modern distribution even if we have to consider the recovery of out of home." 

"The current harvest is handing us a grape quality that ranges from good to excellent," said Riccardo Cotarella, president of Assoenologi. "Much depends on the reference areas, never as in this season has the quanti-qualitative judgment been totally patchy and this is essentially due to an extreme climate that has heavily conditioned, in particular, the months of May, June and especially July with peaks of heat that have exceeded 40 degrees and such a prolonged drought. Fortunately, in August, over much of the country-except for a few exceptions-'smart' rains arrived, that is, rains that did not cause any damage, so that the vines could resume their vegetative growth and ripen grapes without any particular stress. But also containing the negative effects of climate change has been the scientific approach that we winemakers have put in place to support the vineyards. Today, more than ever, science and research in viticulture and in the winery are essential; room for apprentice wine wizards is gone, if there ever was any in the past. Between now and the end of September, we trust in sunny weather, warm enough and perhaps accompanied by a light breeze, so that the grapes yet to be harvested can reach perfect ripeness so as to go on to produce wines capable of once again imposing themselves on the national and international wine scenes."

For the president of Unione italiana vini, Lamberto Frescobaldi: "The vineyard once again proved to be the pivot of the supply chain, demonstrating that even with heat and drought it is possible to make high quality wines and satisfactory volumes. Kudos then go to the companies and producers, who once again helped the plants cope in the best possible way with the adversity of the weather. But the game does not end with the harvest, because especially in such a delicate economic phase there is a growing awareness that we can and must do better on the value front for our wine. In fact, the much-vaunted production record is not a sufficient condition to generate wealth: the "value yields" of the Italian vineyard - according to an analysis carried out by the Uiv Observatory - perform significantly lower than those of France, which marks three times the profitability per hectare cultivated (16.6 thousand euros vs 6 thousand) and per hectolitre produced (294 vs 82 euros). We still need to go a long way to ensure profitability that is directly proportional to the quality produced, with a path that starts from a more rational governance of the sector in terms of appellations of origin to common wine. We must aspire to write - or rewrite - a true vocational charter for our territories, anchored to real indicators, with few but clear rules for all those involved, from producers to control bodies to the trade and consumers."

Climatic and vegetative trends

With -46 percent cumulative precipitation from the beginning of the year to the end of July compared to the average of the last 30 years, 2022 stood out as the driest year since 1800, aggravated also by the hottest temperatures of the last five decades. An exceptional climatic conjuncture, mitigated by the August rains, which did not damage the Italian vineyard where, while keeping a high threshold of attention to the weather in the coming weeks, a more than good vintage is expected with grapes characterized by medium to high potential alcohol contents. Particular attention is paid to the polyphenolic contents of red grapes that determine potential expectations of excellence for aging wines. From a phytosanitary point of view, the situation of the Italian vineyard appears generally excellent, with very rare pathogen attacks.
 

Vineyard Geography Italy and Europe 2022

The ranking of Italian regions also remains stable, headed by Veneto, which, with 11.5 million hectoliters, alone produces more than 1/5 of Italian wine. It is followed by Puglia and Emilia-Romagna, with 10.6 and 7.4 million hectoliters, respectively, for a total product of the three regions equal to 59% of the entire Italian vineyard. On the trends front, the peculiarity of the season does not allow for homogeneous forecasts even in the same area. In the Northwest, there is an important drop in Lombardy (-20%), followed by a more moderate one in Piedmont (-9%) and Liguria (-5%) while Valle d'Aosta is estimated to be growing (+10%). In the Northeast reported recovering from last year are both Trentino Alto Adige (+10%) and Emilia Romagna (+4%) while minor losses could be in Veneto (-3%), with Friuli Venezia Giulia essentially stable. Less variable is the situation in the Center, where there is a sharp rise in volumes for Umbria (+10%) and Tuscany (+12%), followed by a more moderate increase in Marche and Lazio (both at +5%). In the South, the slight increase in Puglia (+3%) contrasts with the slight decline in Sicily (-5%); stable production is expected for Abruzzo, Molise and Calabria. Also growing are Campania (+4%), Sardinia (+15%) and Basilicata (10%).

As far as quality is concerned, excellent wines are generally expected in Trentino Alto Adige and Sicily, while they are setting the bar on "excellent" in Piedmont, Val d'Aosta, Friuli Venezia-Giulia, Tuscany, Lazio, Umbria, Abruzzo, Molise, Puglia and Sardinia, with Liguria, Emilia-Romagna, Marche, Campania, Basilicata and Calabria more cautious on "good/optimal" forecasts. "Good," on the other hand, are the expectations for the Lombardy and Veneto labels.

According to production estimates noted today by Ignacio Sánchez Recarte, secretary general of the association of European entrepreneurs Ceev, there is also a high variability of production in the Old Continent due to climate. Overall, the European vineyard has held up, with France growing on the five-year average (+3.5%, to 44 mln hl), while Spain climbs, where a 16% contraction over the period is expected. Stable production levels in Germany and Portugal.

The market, the first half of tricolor export

With the 2022 vintage, Italy's wine sector maintains its production record while that of turnover remains in the French house. On the market front, according to the latest elaborations based on Istat, Italy closed the first half of the year with a record in value of 3.8 billion euros (+13.5 percent over the same period 2021) while the trend in exported volumes is flat: +0.4 percent. Bottled still and sparkling wines posted +10.3% in value but gave up 1.2% in volume. Unstoppable performance of the sparkling wine sector, which in the first part of the year is close to 1 billion euros in value (+25.5%), with volumes at +10.6%. Growing sharply - mainly due to inflation - is the average price, which rises 13.1% and even nearly 18% in the United States, whose market is also held up by the strong dollar. In the world's top buyer, tricolor growth in value is in fact 13.3 percent, with volumes down 3.8 percent.

Source: Italian Wine Union press office: ispropress

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)